Gartner’s top predictions for 2005 and beyond

I’ve been reading Gartner’s top predictions for 2005 and beyond.

Some of the predictions, make interesting reading, for example the rise in “microcommerce” opportunities and the prediction that “by 2009, counterfeit reality will account for at least one major media and political scandal” (scary when translated into real-world connotations).

Of more interest to me directly are the predictions that:

  • “Cyberattacks against software flaws will double by 2006” (although Gartner note that attacks against misconfigured software will actually decrease because vendors are beginning to ship software with more secure default configurations).
  • “By 2007, three of the top 10 PC vendors will exit the market” (IBM have already sold their PC business since the original Gartner research note was written in November 2004).
  • “By 2008, the technological differences between PCs, mobile devices, e-books, TVs and cellular phones will be eradicated”.
  • “By 2015, 40% of today’s IT job roles will be lost to automation”.

If that last prediction is correct, it looks like I’d better start thinking about retraining as a plumber/electrician/builder…

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